Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves have scored 10 fewer goals from open-play situations compared to at this stage the previous campaign.

A major talking point of England's top flight this campaign is the drop of scoring in open play and how teams are finding goals more from dead-ball situations as an alternative.

Looking at goal sources to the first 11 games the prior season, we see 39 fewer scored in open play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer in total.

If we look at the broader view, efforts on goal teams are taking reveal a staggering 370 fewer in open play than at this stage previously.

Regardless of the significant rise in set-play finishes, we've actually seen only two additional shots generated from them excluding spot-kicks, indicating how effective teams are at devising strategies to convert from set-pieces.

Scoring Rates Tell an Interesting Narrative

301 total goals recorded in the first 110 fixtures to date averages out at 2.74 scores per fixture, if this persists for the whole season might be the lowest for five years, since 2020-21 (2.69).

However, only 196 scores scored in open-play equates to 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the least for since 2009-10, from 16 years ago (1.76 average).

That campaign additionally represents the unique EPL campaign to witness goals scored more often from non-penalty set-pieces than this season's rate of 0.77 each match (0.79).

What Clubs Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the largest drop, registering just four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.

Excluding Wolves, the EPL's fall in goals from open play is very much a trend among London clubs, with five out of the capital's seven sides scoring five or more fewer goals from open-play than last season.

To be fair, this is mainly because their scoring numerous scores at the early stages of the previous campaign as opposed to them having difficulty to score in open-play the current term.

Conversely City have seen the largest rise, with nearly all of their 23 scores to date coming in open-play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

We've compared the promoted teams with the teams that went down that they superseded. Play-off champions Sunderland have netted three extra goals in open-play than the Saints managed in their first 11 games leading to relegation last season.

When it comes to scoring from set-plays (not counting spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have seen the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the five fewer goals that they've produced in open-play with the same number from set-pieces.

Man United have scored twice as many scores from set-pieces as they did in the 11 games last season ahead of the manager took charge, while Sunderland again have been better at converting than the similar-colored team they superseded.

Manchester City don't seem to have got the memo about netting additional goals from set-plays, as they've netted three fewer than last season, like Nottingham Forest, although that might be down to the tactical shift they have tried to implement.

Overall Patterns

Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Tottenham and West Ham – have been this season's top trend-setters by recording fewer goals from open-play and more from set-plays, while City stand as the only side to go against the grain so far by doing the complete reverse.

It remains to be seen to observe if sides continue to depend greatly on set-plays as the season goes on or if they regain their overall inventiveness and commence scoring increased totals in open play too.

Jeffrey Griffin DDS
Jeffrey Griffin DDS

A Berlin-based architect with over 15 years of experience in sustainable design and urban planning, passionate about blending functionality with aesthetics.