Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
