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Mounting concerns exist about the possibility of warfare involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has ratcheted up in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in last year that his nation's access to the sea was an existential matter, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the two countries have frequently been strained. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Government

Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted control of Eritrea's maritime facility of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the boundary - and implied the wish to capture it through military means.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be returned "using武力".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

Despite persistent challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to short statements on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for maritime entry describing it as "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a strategy of retaking previous domains.

Eritrean authorities alerted on mid-September that attempts to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Border

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed graduation ceremonies of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an discussion that the army was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of youths" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British military before turning into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this system and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended civil war followed, ending with Ethiopia's defeat in the early 1990s. Independence was then confirmed by voters in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the governments in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, causing hostilities in 1998.

Although this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries remained at loggerheads.

This ended in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. The two agreed to a declaration that the hostilities was over – a decision that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in Tigray.

However relations have since broken down once more.